After a gradual decline from a 1965 peak that was above 2.5, fertility rates in Europe, fell below replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.This is attributed to Europe's Second Demographic transition and to societal changes towards progressiveness and individualism and the moving away from altruism, marriage and parenthood. Moreover, there is emotional satisfaction of parents with one or two children and a shift to cohabitation and to childless couples.

This was compounded by the sex revolution with acceptance of premarital sex, the wider use of safe contraception, family planning, the pill and IUD's and the marketing of more effective contraceptives. Specifically,legalization of abortions has made a true impact on fertility, together with an increased number of divorces, often soon after marriage. Births out of wedlock have increased and has been a shift from "the King child with parents, to the royal couple with a child"(D.J.van de Kaa). Even the legendary Italian family is a thing of the past. Italian women have fewer children with a total fertility rate(TFR) 1.2 for the country and 0.6 for Northern Italy.

**From my speech at the European Parliament in Brussels on April 2,1997.

There is even some hostility against children in condominiums, in public places and even in Church. A referendum against abortions in Italy failed 2:1.The fifteen countries of EU dispersed in Northern, Western and Southern Europe have a population of 373.9 million, a mean TFR of 1.5 and a mean annual per capita GNP of $20,733.The population is projected at only 369.9 million by 2025.

Population Aging

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Today, the average age of the world population is about 28 years and one in ten people is 60 or older. By 2030 the mean age is projected to be at 31 to 35 years. Western Europe,which at present has the highest proportion of older people(about 20 per cent) will increase its population of 60 and older, at about 30 per cent and possibly at 2100 to 34.7 per cent of the total. Western Europe is the oldest world area regarding its population. The mean age in 1990 was 38 years and by 2010 will be over 40 years and by 2030 under any scenario of fertility,life expectancy and migration, the mean age is expected to be between 43 to 46 years(Lutz 1994).

One might have doubts about how such an aging society will be able to function properly.The question arises: can immigration be a acceptable solution for low fertility rates? Wolfgang Lutz at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA) has shown that, immigration augments the labor force only temporarily in the short to medium term and thus it is not a solution, if the migrants remain in the host country after retirement(Lutz 1994). Higher fertility, near or at replacement level(2.1) even in the absence of migration, will be more effective.

The Middle East

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Middle East,defined by geography,includes Arab states of Bahrain, Egypt,Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates and Yemen and the territories of Gaza and West Bank, as well as the non-Arab states of Iran,Turkey and Israel.

Islam is the predominant religion. Middle East(not counting Egypt) contains 226.7 million, has a mean TFR of 5.0 and is projected to have 395.1 million people, by 2025.

Middle Eastern culture, religion and even politics all encourage large families, and high fertility, is the norm throughout the region. Decades of high fertility have kept people young, with about 40 per cent of them under 15 and only 5 per cent, over 65 years of age(Omran and Roudi,1993).

Urbanization and Water Resources

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There is increasing urbanization in the Middle East. In 1950 27 per cent of population was urban and by 1990 57 per cent lived in cities due to natural increase and flow of migrants from the countryside. The UN projects that by 2025, Turkey's population will be 87 per cent, Iran's 77 per cent and Egypt's 62 per cent urban.

Turkey, Iran and Egypt have a large surplus of working-age adults, because young workers are entering labor force faster than economies can absorb them(Bloom and Brender,1993).

Another pivotal issue is inadequate water resources in the region. Middle East has less water available per capita than any other major world area. No country has rich water supplies and all will be at the mercy of a burgeoning population(Falkenmark and Widstrand,1992). Attempts to share fairly Jordan river's waters, have produced conflict for millennia and recent control of the headwaters of Tigris and Euphrates by Turkey, are producing tensions with Syria and Iraq.

Middle East represents the most politically volatile world region and a huge literature has debated the possibility of democracy in the region. Pressures for change are persistent and political reform will be inevitable, due mainly to huge population growth. Reform in the Middle East however, will be replete with risks and substantial possibilities for upheaval(Morton,1995). Iraq,Turkey (Rouleau,1996) and Saudi Arabia(Aburish,1994 and Viorst,1996)are cases in point.

North Africa

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North Africa, includes, Algeria, Egypt,Libya,Morocco,Sudan, Tunisia and Western Sahara. Its population is exploding, with 165.8 million people today, a mean TFR of 4.0 and projected population of 260.4 million by 2025. This is a young population similar to that of Middle East, with 40 per cent of people being under 15 and 4 per cent over 65 years of age. Again Islam is the predominant religion. This is also a volatile area, shaky economy and very high unemployment due to surplus labor,urbanization, political turmoil and water scarcity.Profitable agriculture is possible only with irrigation. By 2025, virtually all North African countries will be faced with high degree of population pressure on scarce water supplies(Falkenmark and Windstrand,1992).

Egypt, the most populous country in North Africa(64.8 million today, TFR of 3.6 and 97.6 million projected at 2025)is especially important for regional stability, as bulwark against Islamic fundamentalism, proximity to oil regions and her role in the Israeli-Arab peace process.Even with American help, Egypt's future is uncertain. Her population is increasing by about a million every nine months and roughly one third of the people live in poverty.

With about 500,000 new job-seekers entering labor force and per capita GNP of $710 per year, the economy has to grow by 6 to 8 per cent per year, and it is much below the mark. Recently,Islamists won strong electoral victories in professional associations and that is worrisome. High unemployment includes white-collar workers. Algeria,is the powder keg of North Africa.Her population today is 29.8 million,with TFR of 4.4,(with 39 per cent under 15 and 4 per cent over 65 years of age) and projected population of 47.7 million at 2025(Anderson, 1995).

Geography makes her political future crucial to America and the European Union. Domination by extremists would be a threat to the entire region and to Middle East. There is rapid population growth plus urbanization, environmental decay, enhanced dependence on imported food, and very high(about 30 per cent) youth unemployment, with high levels of violence between government and Islamist guerrillas. Algeria's problems are very worrisome for Western Europe, and especially for France(Anderson,1995).

Morocco, has a strategic location,only eight miles from Europe across the strait of Gibraltar. Most Moroccans are Sunni Muslims and agriculture plays a big role in their economy. Urbanization increased,from 29 to 47 per cent between 1960 to 1990. Unemployment rose to 31 per cent in 1987 and decreased to 19 per cent in 1992.

Morocco's population is growing rapidly, with a TFR of 3.3. Its population of 28.2 million is projected to be 39.9 million at 2025.

The foreign debt is above $20 billion(Anderson,1995). Thus, brisk population growth,and high unemployment(Moroccan work force between 1990 and 2020 will increase by 7.7 million),plus turmoil in the area, will create an explosive mix for Moroccan society.

Sub-Saharan Africa

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Sub-Saharan Africa has been a significant source of migrants to Western Europe,e.g. Switzerland,Italy,Spain and to former colonial powers,such as Belgium,France and United Kingdom. There are huge numbers of refugees in this vast region. Standards of living are falling,and political instability and tribal wars are endemic.

The effect of AIDS on population growth has been debated for some time and some projections for 2025 show 100 million people less, than the previous estimates for Sub-Saharan Africa. This will not solve Africa's problem.Population will reach 1,313 million by 2025.

Migration: Threat to European Security?

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Because of low fertility and population aging, many Europeans have a justified fear that migration from developing countries, will reach unacceptable levels, during the first quarter of the 21st century, threatening their way of life and also European security.

(Weiner,1995;Martin and Widgren,1996)Between 1961 to 1974, Western European countries imported laborers from Turkey, North Africa, Yugoslavia, Greece, Portugal and others, on the basis of signed contracts between Governments(Guestworker program). These countries operated with the premise, that foreign laborers will return home when no longer needed. However, most foreign workers stayed on and brought in their families (Meissner,Hormats,Walker,Ogata,1993).

By 1974 due to economic slowdown most Governments stopped the guestworker program, but communities of migrants continued to expand, with arrival of families of guestworkers(1975-1985).Fall of communist regimes ushered the era of massive asylum claimants, ethnic returnees and illegal immigrants(Weiner,1995).

Between 1990 to 1995 Europe had about 2 million newcomers per year, surpassing the United States.The foreign nationals have produced backlash against them, at times violent. Europeans are anxious, as shown by popular support for political parties with anti-immigrant rhetoric. In 1993, foreigners in the 15 EU countries amounted to about 19 million and these Governments have sought practical solutions to migration pressures, due to rising unemployment.Three agreements were signed: the Schengen Agreement in 1985,the Dublin Convention in 1990 and the Maastricht Agreement in 1993.

Combination of low fertility and population aging, with high living standards and generous welfare systems, plus superb education for the young, constitutes a magnet for legal and illegal immigrants and asylum seekers. Large influx of immigrants from the south and southeast can strain the economy,generate violence,threaten political upheaval, and transfer social and political problems, from supplying to host country. For the EU, both volume of immigration and origin of migrants, are crucial for its security and well-being(Meissner,Hormats,Walker,Ogata,1993).

The Future

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The EU finds itself today at crossroads of migration pressures.

Steady flow of illegal migrants and asylum seekers since 1990, is a wake up call.(Cornelius,Martin,Hollifield,1994).

Germany now has a large non-EU population from Turkey, Yugoslavia, Poland, Iran, Morocco, Tunisia and other countries. The largely unfounded claims by asylum seekers are a major problem for Germany because the right for political asylum is included in Article 16 of the Basic Law of FRG. France has large numbers of Algerians, Moroccans, Tunisians and Turks and migrants from Senegal,Mali, Mauritania and others.Italy has migrants and asylum seekers from Ghana, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria,Tunisia, Philippines, China,Senegal and other countries. Illegal migration pressures from the South are evident in Spain, with migrants arriving by boat from Morocco.

Maghreb countries are the main source of illegal migrants to Europe and those from Sub-Saharan Africa, use Maghreb as first stop to Europe. Uncontrolled migration to EU is thought about with trepidation. At 2025 the projected combined populations of the Middle East(395.1 million),of North Africa(260.4 million), and that of Sub-Saharan Africa(1,100 million) will be 1,755.5 million souls. Inadequate water, political turmoil and a huge surplus of labor in Middle East and North Africa, could easily fuel waves of migration to Europe(Weiner,1995).

Turkey, presents a unique problem due to her persistent efforts for admission to the EU. With population reaching 89.9 million at 2025, faces an uncertain future.Overpopulation, urbanization, economic, environmental and human rights problems, combined with Islamic revival, will be a source of serious future instability.

Finally Sub-Saharan Africa's overpopulation(1,100 million at 2025) political strife, economic distress and conflicts within and among states, will probably generate a profusion of migrants to Europe, through colonial connections of the European-educated elites.

Remedies

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I wish to emphasize that population projections for Middle East and Africa, are just that: mere projections.Most people do not migrate to live or work in another country and most migrants move from one developing country to another. However,the projected overpopulation in the Middle East and Africa at 2025 is so enormous,that even below projected levels, will most probably result in uncontrolled out-migration,with Spain,Italy and Greece in its path. This prospect is unprecedented in European History. For those who think that these views are alarmist, simplistic or exaggerated,I would ask that they should look at the numbers,once more. Moreover, these views have nothing to do with racism or with xenophobia.

What can be done about this enormous problem? Here are some suggestions:

-The EU should develop a harmonized policy framework to control intake of legal migrants and to minimize the number of illegals and asylum seekers.Parts of the Australian model for handling illegal migrants and asylum claimants might be useful.Airlines are fined for bringing passengers without visas. Requests for asylum are made offshore at Australian Embassies and Consulates.

-The new rules concerning migrants, should be well publicized by the EU Embassies and Consulates around the world.

-Persistent efforts should be made to assess the number of illegal immigrants in all EU member States and a definitive program should be developed to deal with them firmly and humanely.

-Main stream political parties in EU States should articulate clear and practical responses to the migration problem. The absence of such responses has helped the right-wing parties to define the issue for the public.

-Efforts should be made for assimilation of all legal foreign residents, especially the young who were born in the host country.

-Special programs should be developed for training EU young workers and re-training the 15 million unemployed in technical skills, for a 21st century labor force and for facilitating the entry of millions of EU married women, into the labor market.

-A new Policy Agreement should be established by the EU, for comprehensive family development Programs, in order to achieve near replacement fertility(2.1), starting with Greece, Italy and Spain, as frontier States. -6-

-The EU and US should provide financial support, for Family Planning Programs in the Middle East and Africa, according to the Action Plan of the Cairo Conference.

-The EU and NATO should vigorously pursue security agreements with countries of North Africa and Middle East, to include local control of Migration,Trade,Investment and Special Aid,with special economic zones similar to those along the China coastline (Collinson, 1996; and Salt,1996)).

-Finally, the EU, United States,Japan and others should initiate a rescue program for Sub-Saharan Africa, which will pose an even bigger problem early in the next century. Explosion in Africa will ruin the global economy, specifically that of the EU and United States.The time to act on Africa,is now(Pfaff,1995;Callaghy,1994).

References

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Aburish,Said K.
1994 The House of Saud.New York:Saint Martin's Press.

Anderson,Lisa
1995 North Africa:The Limits of Liberalization.Current History,Vol94, No591:167-171.

Bloom,David E and Brender Adi
1993 Labor and the Emerging World Economy.Population Bulletin,Vol48,No2:1-39.

Callaghy Thomas, M.
1994 Africa:Falling off the Map? Current History Vol93, No579:31-36.

Collinson Sara
1996 Shore to Shore.The Politics of Migration in Euro- Magreb Relations.London:Royal Institute of International Affairs:1-114.

Cornelius, Wayne A,Martin Philip,L and Hollifield John,F.
1994 Controlling Migration.A Global Perspective.

Stanford: Stanford University Press.

Falkemark Malin,Widstrand Carl.
1992 Population and Water Resources:A Delicate Balance.

Population Bulletin Vol 47,No3;1-36.

Lutz Wolfgang The Future of World Population.Population Bulletin1994 Vol49,No1:1-47.

Martin Phillip,L and Wilgren Jonas
1996 International Migration:A Global Challenge. Population Bulletin,Vol51,No1:1-48.

-7-

Mazur Laurie, A.
1994 Beyond the Numbers. Washington D.C:Island Press.

Morton Augustus, R.
1995 The Challenge of Inclusion in the Middle East.

Current History, Vol94,No588:1-6.

Omran Abdel, R and Roudi Rarzaneh
1993 The Middle East Population Puzzle. Population Bulletin,Vol48,No1:1-40.

Phaff William
1995 A New Colonialism? Foreign Affairs,Vol 74,No1:2-6

Rouleau Eric
1996 Turkey:Beyond Ataturk.Foreign Policy,Vol 103,No103: 70-87.

Salt John
1996 Current Trends in International Migration in Europe.

6th Conference of European Ministers responsible for migration affairs.Warsaw, June 16-18:1-35.

Teitelbaum Michael,S and Winter Jay, M.
1985 The Fear of Population decline.San Diego:Academic Press.

Viorst Milton
1996 The Storm and the Citadel.Foreign Affairs,Vol75,No1:93-107.

Weiner Myron
1995 The Global Migration Crisis.Challenge to States and to Human Rights.New York:Harper Collins College Publishers.

Population Reference Bureau(PRB)
1997 World Population Data Sheet,Washington D.C.

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Note: Professor Michael C.Geokas is President of Demokritos Society of America [A Hellenic-American Think-Tank].

P.O. Box 2247, Walnut Creek, California, USA.

FAX: 510\946-1987,E-Mail geokas@ix.netcom.com

© 2004 Hellenic Communication Service. All Rights Reserved.